Pick 'Em Preview: More big games in the SECBy Will Harris College Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every week to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Tuesdays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews.
Clemson versus Wake Forest (10 points)
These two teams are tied for second place in the ACC Atlantic behind Boston College, but only Clemson can win the division without help. The Tigers are on as big a roll as any team in America, outscoring their past three opponents 147-41. Clemson has allowed an average of only 67 yards rushing during that span, which is bad news for a pedestrian Wake Forest offense that doesn't throw the ball well. This year's Clemson team has better chemistry and leadership than previous editions and should be focused enough to avoid a letdown prior to next week's showdown at Boston College. Meanwhile, the Deacons are always well-prepared. Coach Jim Grobe's teams always have an excellent understanding of the game plan and all factors considered; it's not a stretch to call Wake the best-coached team in the nation. If Clemson plays well, however, the Tigers will have too much for an outmanned Wake team to handle. The Deacs' only advantage in this matchup is on special teams, and that won't be enough to win. Clemson, 34-17
Ohio State versus Illinois (9 points)
Illinois came closer than any team except Michigan and Florida to last year's Buckeyes team, losing by a mere 17-10 margin. Coach Ron Zook's squad outgained the Bucks in that game and held QB Troy Smith and Co. scoreless in the second half. This year the Illini are much-improved, and while the passing game has been erratic, only Missouri and Iowa held the potent Illinois rushing game to less than 4 yards per carry. Something must give Saturday, because Ohio State's defense allows only 2.2 yards per carry and fewer than 68 yards per game on the ground. Expect a spirited effort from an Illini team that has some offensive weapons and sports enough bulk and speed in the front seven to slow OSU running back Chris Wells. The Buckeyes came out flat last week against Wisconsin before taking command in the fourth quarter, so they likely won't be as vulnerable to overconfidence this week. While the Illini will play well, they just don't have enough horses to win in Columbus if they can't catch the Buckeyes napping. Ohio State, 31-17
Cincinnati versus Connecticut (8 points)
The 2007 Connecticut Huskies are living a charmed life. The team is ranked 13th in the BCS standings, the only blemish being a one-point road loss to an 8-2 Virginia team. The Huskies have an outstanding defense, a great running game, superb team chemistry and leadership, and solid quarterbacking and special-teams play. This bunch is really good. But they're not as good as they appear. This is a team living on borrowed time. Connecticut has been outgained in every game against BCS competition except the win over Duke. They've won with a combination of timely turnovers, big special-teams plays and help from the officials. I don't want to sound like I'm bashing this team because I think the Huskies are a fantastic mix of great chemistry, coaching, heart and good football players. But frankly, the team's success has been fueled too much by good fortune, and after four straight tough games, Connecticut is running out of gas. The Bearcats know a little about good fortune in the turnover department, as well, and with a stout run defense and explosive offense, Cincinnati matches up well in this contest. The Cats' weakness is a porous pass defense that allows too many big plays, a liability Connecticut is ill-suited to exploit. Overall, these teams are closely matched, but I'll take the fresher team with the advantage in the trenches at home. Cincinnati, 24-6
Kansas at Oklahoma State (7 points)
These offenses are similar in terms of both scheme and production. Each averages just less than 500 yards per game, including more than 200 yards both rushing and passing. Kansas has the more productive defense, and the Jayhawks have been impenetrable against the run. They'll be tested by a quality Oklahoma State rushing attack. The Cowboys need this game to improve their shot at a bowl invitation, but it's unlikely that they can get off the mat after blowing their third huge lead in four years against Texas. If coach Mike Gundy can get his players to rebound, this will be a tight game. But it will be hard for the Cowboys to shake such a heartbreaking defeat in time to put in quality preparation for a Kansas team that doesn't much resemble last year's edition. Like Oregon last week, the Jayhawks get a chance to show what they can do on a big television stage. No team in America has more momentum, and next week's battle against lowly Iowa State is the more likely letdown spot. Kansas, 45-31
California versus USC (6 points)
The Trojans possess the more talented personnel, and fundamentally they're the better team this season. Both sides have seen quarterback injuries hamper offensive production, but overall the offenses have been similar in both rushing and passing the ball. Defensively, the Trojans have the superior unit, allowing more than 100 fewer yards per game and a yard less per rush than the Bears. California's offensive line has been among the best in the nation in pass protection, which negates one of the Trojans' chief weapons, a pass rush that recorded nine sacks last week against Oregon State. Cal does have the more explosive return game, but in terms of balance, the host is deservedly the underdog. Although the Trojans are the fundamentally superior team, their edge is not enough to overcome a big disparity in motivation. Both teams have fallen victim to the bubble-burst syndrome this year after being knocked from the national title chase. Now both are all but out of the Rose Bowl picture, as well. The Trojans expect to compete on a national level each year, and for them, this game cannot soothe the pain of being an also-ran. For the Bears, this game provides a chance to salvage an otherwise disappointing season with a big home win over a hated team that the Bears would like to call their rival. Neither team has any chance of reaching its preseason goals, nor does either have anything tangible to play for. The second fiddle simply wants this one more, and USC won't be able to match the Bears' intensity in the game or all week in practice. California, 38-24
Virginia Tech versus Florida State (5 points)
It's a rematch of the inaugural ACC title game in 2005, and both teams are coming in with a lot of momentum. Florida State defeated second-ranked Boston College on the road last week behind a strong performance from quarterback Drew Weatherford. Without having to look over his shoulder at suspended co-starter Xavier Lee for the first time this season, Weatherford turned in his best outing to date against a suspect Boston College secondary. The Hokies won't be as easy to pick on, however. Virginia Tech, like Florida State, features a struggling offense and a stout run defense. The Hokies probably have the better pass defense, but the host is also more banged-up. Coach Frank Beamer is keeping Bobby Bowden and defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews guessing by not announcing whether Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor will start at quarterback. Tech's real advantage, however, comes from their unique motivation for this game. After losing the way the Hokies did against Boston College, most teams would have turned in a lackluster outing the following week, especially on the road against a quality team. But Virginia Tech circled the wagons and dedicated the rest of the season to getting to the ACC title game in order to get another crack at the Eagles. Like Michigan, the Hokies do have some margin for error in their quest for revenge and a conference title. Tech can drop one of the next two games against FSU or Miami and still win the Coastal Division with a win over Virginia. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are out of the ACC race and are simply trying to ensure a quality postseason assignment. These teams are similar defensively, and while they play different styles of offense, the production (or lack thereof) is comparable. Both special teams units excel in all phases except kickoff returns, but Tech's is known more for its ability to make game-changing plays, especially at home. You never know when Beamerball is going to strike, but the Hokies have more to play for and are hard to beat in Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech, 14-9
Texas versus Texas Tech (4 points)
The Red Raiders' defense has been just as good as the Longhorns' overall, though Tech's stop unit has been better against the pass than the run, while Texas' is a run-stuffing group. The Red Raiders have given the Horns fits over the years but haven't had much success in Austin. It's not likely that the Raiders can slow down RB Jamaal Charles, but Texas won't have an answer for WR Michael Crabtree, either. This series has been characterized by shootouts, and in years when the Horns don't have a dominant defensive unit, the games have always been close. Expect more of the same in this one, with the momentum swings fueled by the home fans proving to be the difference once again. Texas, 41-37
Georgia versus Auburn (3 points)
This should be another great SEC game between evenly matched teams. Georgia has the more prolific offense, while Auburn boasts the better defense. In each case, the differences are slight. The Bulldogs may have the best player on the field in freshman running back Knowshon Moreno. If you haven't seen Moreno yet, envision the heart and determination of Michigan's Mike Hart, but with breakaway speed. I love this guy so much I might not pick against Georgia for three more years. The road team has dominated this series, and Auburn is seeking revenge for last year's upset blowout on the Plains. Georgia, however, knows that Tennessee is likely to surrender the SEC East lead with a loss to Arkansas, Kentucky or Vanderbilt, and if so, the Dawgs will be back on the road to the SEC title game. The host has the biggest playmaker and more at stake. Dawgs will win a close one. Georgia, 23-20
Florida at South Carolina (2 points)
This was supposed to be the Gamecocks' best shot at an SEC East title, but it has gone south with four straight losses. The problems have been a rush defense that is allowing more than 200 yards per game and a sputtering, inconsistent offense. Most teams with negative momentum don't get healthy against Florida, but Carolina could choose this spot to make a stand. Like Cal, the Gamecocks have seen their season goals evaporate, but also like the Bears, the team has a shot at a season-salvaging upset over the biggest fish in their pond. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier will get his team motivated for this one, and the Gamecocks will have a great shot at upsetting a good-but-not-great Gators squad that doesn't have as much incentive to win since it got booted from the SEC title hunt at the Cocktail Party. On paper, Carolina can't stop QB Tim Tebow from running the ball, but the much-maligned run defense should play with a chip on its shoulder after the embarrassment of allowing 500-plus yards to Arkansas. Getting rich off Vandy doesn't change the fact that Florida still has issues at running back and in the secondary. I'll count on Spurrier to deliver his best game plan yet, and if three key Carolina starters currently listed as questionable are able to play, the Cocks will win a big home game. South Carolina, 21-20
Michigan at Wisconsin (1 point)
This is a dangerous game for the Wolverines; a loss would have no impact on the team's quest to claim a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl berth. Fresh off the comeback thriller over Michigan State, and with Ohio State up next, this could be a very bad spot for Michigan to play a quality team on the road. QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart are starting to get healthy, though, while the injuries are really piling up for the Badgers. The main concern is the status of Wisconsin's workhorse back, P.J. Hill, who was sorely missed in Columbus last week and who is still listed as questionable for this game. Wisconsin is already at a disadvantage in the trenches here, and another week without Hill won't help their cause. At least sophomore backup Lance Smith will be available; he missed last week due to a season-long suspension from road games. This one is anybody's game, and with a healthy Hill, I would lean to the host. Instead, I'll call for Michigan's superior run defense to provide the difference in a close one. Michigan, 24-23
Check out our full preview of the weekend ahead! College Football Fantasy Pick 'em Will Harris is a fantasy baseball and college football analyst for ESPN.com. |
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